In a world where you can’t advertise on Facebook, how will you reach your target audience?
What would happen if Facebook didn’t exist?
What would happen if it did exist but changed the business model to subscriptions so it wasn’t ad-supported?
What if you could advertise on Facebook but the repercussions of running ads made it too risky for brands to be seen running there?
I love scenario planning, and I based these examples off an exercise from my former colleague at 360i, Converging Arts founder Mark Avnet, who served as the dean of 360iU. A gifted educator and mentor, I’ve repeatedly used his “In a World” exercise during speaking and consulting engagements, and I’ve even used examples like this: what would happen if you couldn’t advertise on Facebook?
There is a set structure to “In a World.” As I’ve received permission from Mark to share it, here are the five steps you need to frame your thinking about any disruptive possibility:
- In a world where ___ is true:
- The big disruptive thought is: ___
- What this means is that people/businesses/something will: ___
- This could impact this brand/these products because: ___
- We could test this by: ___
Going through this exercise often leads to breakthrough ideas. You can spend five minutes on this or weeks, but even in a rapid-fire session, you can discover new perspectives.
When you take a negative scenario that some might find dystopian, at least for your business, then it’s a forced constraint, one that reminds me of the cold open to the “Baby Shower” episode of The Office where Dwight is about to give birth to a watermelon and keeps exhorting to Michael Scott, “Adapt!”
Say you’re a major consumer packaged goods brand, and you bring some of your executives and agency partners together on a Zoom call (or, ironically, a WhatsApp group chat), to go through one of these Facebook scenarios. Here’s how it might go:
- In a world where there is such a backlash to Facebook that the repercussions are too high for brands to advertise there…
- The big disruptive thought is we need to cut our Facebook ad spend to $0 and reallocate that budget elsewhere.
- What this means is that all of our brands will lose either their most important or second-most important digital channel for reaching their target consumers for both acquisition and retention.
- This could impact these brands because without generating that awareness and demand, sales could fall off a cliff.
- We could test this by taking a brand with one of the smallest media budgets that is still spending at least 40% of its digital ads through Facebook and remove Facebook from its buys, reallocating that to any non-social channel. We can try this over 30 days and see if there is any noticeable impact on sales. We can also test this for certain brands by removing Facebook buys in certain geographies.
There are no right answers, and this is nowhere near as fun a version of it as you can run. Push it further. Get into war game planning where you imagine Russia or China taking out the US internet for three months, and then you can’t do any digital ads whatsoever (we might have bigger problems than where to run ads in such a scenario though).
What I’m not going to do (today, at least) is comment on whether you should boycott Facebook or stop social media ads more broadly. Set the relationship status to “it’s complicated,” and we can grab a virtual beer one of these days and discuss how it’d work for your company and brands.
What you should do is try the exercise, and if you really want to do it right, call Mark to have him run it (Mark’s been an actual dean; I just play one when he’s too busy).
Most importantly, try it out yourself soon. See what happens. Stack scenarios, where you take the results from one and lead it down some “choose your own adventure” path to explore unintended consequences. Try a mix of weird and practical examples.
Here are some other thought-starters you can try, especially if you’re not advertising much on social media and want other hooks to play with:
In a world where people don’t watch ad-supported TV…
In a world where office workers no longer work from offices…
In a world where boards and executive teams reflect the demographics of the countries where those businesses are based…
In a world where people no longer attend live sporting events and concerts, either because they’re closed or because people are fearful to go even when such gatherings are allowed…
In a world where Democratic control of the presidency and Senate (however much you love or hate the idea) leads to momentum to break up Amazon or Google or Facebook…
In a world where a billing snafu means you can’t advertise on Google… (This is based on a true story, actually involving Facebook, that a friend of mine encountered this spring; the cause of disruption can be very boring).
In a world where your closest competitor goes under overnight…
In a world where your closest competitor gets acquired for $500 million…
This year, 2020, has given us a world where it feels like black swan events happen daily. A pandemic kills 500,000 people (so far) and shuts down global commerce and movement. NASCAR bans the Confederate flag. The person many viewed as the most boring, washed-up candidate in the 20+ person Democratic field wrapped up the primaries quickly. “Karen” became the insult of the year, if not the century. A Facebook ad boycott is putting the company on the defensive and may impact its bottom line. Crazy, crazy times.
You can’t predict everything during this time where it feels like you can’t predict anything. You can’t truly plan for all for this.
What you can do is train yourself to be nimbler and see unexpected threats and opportunities. Step five of “In a World” is the most powerful, especially if you go and run some of those tests.
Thanks, Mark, for helping so many of your colleagues and students make sense of the world. I want to be living in a world where I’m learning from you more often.
David
PS: The next SpeedUp 1:1 networking event is coming July 8.
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LEARN. TRY. SHARE.
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SO HAPPY TOGETHER
Speaking of former colleagues, 360i alum Jeremy Elias spoke with design legend Milton Glaser just before Glaser’s passing and even got a preview of his ‘Together’ campaign. This is a wonderful interview, and I was pleasantly surprised to see Jeremy was behind it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/
DANCING ABOUT OPEN ARCHITECTURE
Jack Myers interviewed IPG CEO Michael Roth about innovations in the holding company model. I covered the Q&A and focused on how agency businesses are changing. Myers is a stellar interviewer, so catch the video too.
https://www.mediavillage.com/
READY, AIM, HIRE
Don Leon, a recent Serial Marketers Salon guest and active community member, shares his thoughts for what will happen to recruiting in the months ahead and what you should do about it.
https://techunited.co/ten-
RO, RO, RO YOUR BOT
The Machine Economy is coming for all of our jobs, writes David Siegel. Here’s what’s happening, and why he feels fine.
https://medium.com/science-
RESOURCE HIGHLIGHTS
DATA
- CovidPing gives you regular SMS updates about the virus data
- Financial Times: coronavirus tracker and visualizations (access for free)
- Domo’s coronavirus tracker and visualizations
- Data hubs from Google and Foursquare with location trends related to coronavirus
- Glimpse’s COVID-related trending topics
- Retail trends from Retailmenot and Rockerbox (D2C focus)
- Rt.live COVID spread tracker
- State maps of coronavirus spread for New York and Texas
- USAFacts.org: up-to-the-minute metrics
- Within’s Retail Pulse for trends including revenue, conversion rates, and ad spend
- World Federation of Advertisers (WFA) tracks brand responses to coronavirus
DONATE & SUPPORT
- $1K Project to support families for three months
- Charity Gift Certificates that support lots of COVID-related causes
- Coffee donations for healthcare workers
- Frontline Foods raises money to pay local restaurants to deliver meals to crisis workers
- Help Main Street (120K+ local businesses in 50 states) by ordering online, buying gift cards, or donating
- Hospitals near you need support — via Protect the Heroes
- Local business gift cards via Square
- Personal Trainer directory from Salut; support them with donations
- PPE resources from Laura Fitton
- Support Restaurants with dining bonds
- Tip bartenders handsomely (even the less handsome or pretty ones)
SOCIAL JUSTICE
- Ally.wiki master guide to resources
- Coursera: learn about race, inequality, and social justice
Speaking of sharing…
We now have a referral rewards hub to check your progress on earning rewards, and there are two new rewards for frequent sharers. Visit https://referralhub.
Thanks to Allie Smith, Jeremy Woolf, Shelly Lipton, Leo Morejon, Rob Beeler and Jacob Shwirtz for spreading the word recently.
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EVENTS
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Please send over any events you’re hosting or attending, and I’ll add them to the list. All events below are virtual, and all times are EDT, unless otherwise specified.
Tuesdays, 3pm
We have an incredible lineup:
-7/14: Secret Financial Lives with Ben Zeidler and Gunny Scarfo, founders of Nonfiction Research
-7/21: Marketing the American Dream with Roya Hakakian, author of the upcoming A Beginner’s Guide to America
-7/28: Turning Analytics into Intelligence with John Thompson of CSL Behring and author of the upcoming Packt
Request access to RSVP:
https://www.meetup.com/Serial-
SERIAL MARKETERS SPEEDUP #3
July 8, 4pm
Join the virtual 1:1 rapid-fire speed-meeting event to connect with fellow Serial Marketers, hosted by the Upstream app. It’s iOS only, for now (iPhone or Android). If you can’t make the event itself but want to try it, join the group.
Event: https://link.
Group: https://link.
ANA DIGITAL & SOCIAL MEDIA CONFERENCE
July 7-8
Via my friends at the ANA: Register today to attend the 2020 ANA Digital & Social Media Conference virtually on July 7th and 8th. You’ll stay ahead of the innovations in digital marketing by hearing the latest on personalization, channel optimization, influencer marketing, social listening, measurement, and developing responsive and engaging content from digital marketing leaders from Ford, Mondelēz, Molson Coors, Nationwide, Mastercard, Chipotle and more! Buy ONE pass and you can register your entire company. Pricing starts at $299.
https://www.ana.net/
VIRTUAL CROWD SUMMIT: CROWDFUNDING 2.0
August 27
From my friends at Crowdsourcing Week: “The Virtual Crowd Summit, a 1-day online web conference covers actionable related topics in crowdfunding that are increasingly rewriting the rules in every sector now more than ever.”
https://crowdsourcingweek.com/
BIG YELLOW HACKFEST
September 10, September 17
This group is amazing. Check them out. “We have a trust problem in the marketing and advertising industry. Over the past 15 years, as new distribution mechanisms like social, disciplines like content marketing, or initiatives like diversity and inclusion emerged, we silo’d. We continue to silo, not integrate–while we watch the world innovate. This compromises brand experience, and, in turn, threatens brand trust. Big Yellow Think Tank seeks to advance collaboration across brand experience. By leveraging this abrupt shift in the world, we will reimagine the way we work and serve brands. Big Yellow Think Tank is ready to set a new standard and we need your voice. Our first initiative? A virtual hackfest.”
https://bigyellowthinktank.
MEDIAVILLAGE
Ongoing
Events for May and June include conversations between Jack Myers and luminaries such as Ford’s Lisa Schoder and Jim Motavalli, Madison Avenue Manslaughter author Michael Farmer, and LUMA’s Mr. Lumascape Terry Kawaja.
https://www.mediavillage.com/
ZEITGUIDE’S CULTURE CLASSES
Wednesdays, 2pm
Zeitguide’s Brad Grossman continues his weekly culture classes this week as the start of his 10-week summer semester. He always runs through the need-to-know cultural developments of the week, and features an expert guest each week.
https://zeitguide.com/culture
